Michael Scott Balch, PhD

Dr. Balch is the principal instructor and chief consultant at Alexandria Validation Consulting, LLC. At present, all technical services are provided by Dr. Balch personally. With ten years of experience in verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification; Dr. Balch has established a reputation for delivering practical solutions to challenging problems.

In his doctoral work, Dr. Balch pioneered the application of random sets as a method for obtaining probability bounds in atmospheric uncertainty analysis, in support of NASA's Mars program. He also provided a vigorous defense for adhering to frequent standards of belief in analyses done in support of an engineering safety case. This defense illustrated how the practical constraints of a problem in uncertainty quantification drive the choice of epistemology, which in turn drives the choice of method. This connected triple, problem-epistemology-method, is central to the pedagogy of the short courses taught at Alexandria Validation Consulting, LLC.

In subsequent posts, Dr. Balch has produced new methods for engineers and scientists working in uncertainty quantification. At Applied Biomathematics, as part of a project for the NIH, Dr. Balch laid down the foundations for the theory of confidence structures, a frequentist alternative to Bayesian parameter inference. At Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Dr. Balch developed a hybrid Bayesian-significance testing approach for assessing model form hypotheses, in support of AFRL's hypersonics validation efforts. Most recently, Dr. Balch has introduced a judiciously tailored random-to-fuzzy transformation as a fix for probability dilution in satellite conjunction analysis. While most practitioners spend decades using the same two or three statistical tricks to solve well-established problems, Dr. Balch has spent the past ten years aggressively seeking out the most difficult problems in uncertainty quantification and solving them using either new or cutting-edge techniques.

A more formal summary of Dr. Balch's experience is presented in his résumé, which is attached. Papers authored and co-authored by Dr. Balch are also available.

David Harris Muntner

David is the head of customer research at Alexandria Validation Consutling, LLC. He is responsible for gathering information on potential clients and potential fields of application for V&V&UQ methodology. He also provides many potential clients with their first introduction to Alexandria Validation Consulting, LLC. With seven years of experience in management and promotion, David has demonstrated a consistent ability to adapt to new problems and help guide organizations through transition and expansion.

While David has taken an intense interest in the advance of V&V&UQ practice, music remains his first passion. Serving as both member and co­manager of indie rock group, The Tins, David has continuously worked on the marketing front with publicists and label relations, personally secured several sponsorships, arranged live music events, successfully funded two kickstarter campaigns, helped the band attain Spotify Staffpicks #2 song of 2010, and has been a contributing writer for multiple news outlets.

A more thorough introduction to David's work outside AVCLLC can be found at The Tins' official website.
Michael Balch,
Jan 20, 2016, 7:05 AM